Covid-19 and forecasting

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The COVID-19 crisis is not only a real challenge for our public health, our hospital and doctors, but is also a triggering huge challenge for all businesses around the world. Forecast and Budget will not be achieved in most of the industries (but not everywhere) and the need for forecasting and re-forecasting the 2020 activity is becoming more and more obvious, in order to face this expectional time in history. 

Before going through this post: did you also check our general article on sales forecasting and how to build one?

The travel industry being hit. Big time.

Travel industry is obviously the first industry to be hit in the wake of the COVID-19 virus.

Confinement measurements are by definition making it impossible for people to travel and travel companies are so far reacting good as shows the reaction of AirBn'B responding it by making the cancellation policy more flexible. This will be remembered by customers.

National economies will be hit and cCountries which heavily rely on tourism such as Thailand will definitely have a hard time ahead the curve as the inbound number of tourists will be cut. Thailand has around 39M tourists a year, and around 10M are coming from China. Travel restrictions are hitting the industry violently, the question being: for how long?

Some niche players are however making the most of it and registering sudden unexpected growth. 

This is the case of private jet industry suddenly taking off, due to businessmen and businesswomen all around the world having to travel to close deals while regular airplane companies reduce their capacities, like the French national company, Air France, announcing to cut its flight offer.

Catering and restaurants are also having a hard time

With restaurant and bars being progressively shut down throughout Europe, the catering industry is not only being directly, but also all food delivery businesses such as the German Delivery are implementing contactless deliveries at part of their day to day business.

Business operations will need to adapt and communication to employees and customers will not accept any fault. Customers won't like to be put at risk or run the slightliest danger due to careless companies.

Groceries are however booming with the COVID-19!

We all saw this incredible videos of people rushing into supermarkets, buying staples, toilet paper, pasta, and all what's required to survive in times of crisis. Empty sections as if we were in a shortage economy, people queueing hours long to get their food and other products....

Supermarkets will definitely see a big spike in demand and will have, in one year time, negative year over year progression with such an unexpected growth in business.The $1M question being: is the situation going to last? This question remains floating in the air. Fact is that the peak of COVID-19 hasn't been reached, at least in Europe, so uncertain times will be for sure ahead of us.

There will be of course a sales cannibalization effect, where sales occurring now won't happen over the next few months: when you buy 10 units of pasta, it might take some time to eat them all!

Forecasting and re-forecasting the business growth is key to success

Hard times require tough measures.

The need to forecast and re-forecast the activity and closely monitor the latest trends is key to success - and for some companies, key to survive! When you run a business with tight margins or where the time between purchasing and getting the product ready to sell is quite long (delivery time), you might want to make the right decision now for your business, in order to survive the COVID-19 crisis tomorrow.

Getting demand projection right to adapt stocks and tactical marketing actions with the ability to move fast and adapt are key success factors in the context of the COVID-19. 

Our tool helps building fast a demand forecast, helping managers to extract sales projections based on the latest trends observed. While a forecast being a forecast, meaning we can't get it 100% right, running a forecast day after day with the latest actuals, will help to understand the general direction and trend of the business. Please get in touch with us if you want to use our forecast solution.

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